The February 2025 California Bar Exam continues to make headlines. The most recent? An article in Reuters yesterday, titled “Hundreds of California bar exam-takers move from fail to pass with new scoring.” Of particular note:

More than 200 people who took California’s disastrous February bar exam will go from failing to passing under a new round of grading changes approved on Friday, boosting the test’s overall pass rate from 56% to 63% — nearly double the state’s historical average of 35%.

My May piece in the International Jurist and a recent post on Beyond Non-JD set the stage for this post. Ultimately, California’s pass rates for the two categories of “foreign” takers hover around 15-25% most years (overall takers).

Pass Rate Statistics & the October 2020 Exam

Statistics take a relatively long time to be released. So with some free time, I went back to look over the stats from both groups between 2020-2024. If I made any mistakes in copying over, please reach out and I’ll edit.

What happened in red? You’ll note that it is the only exam not offered in February or July. That, you may recall, was the first exam after the COVID pandemic altered U.S. legal education in March 2020. The news story from the California Lawyers Association detailing the postponement from July to October is here. Though COVID was already in the news in late February when that cohort took the exam.

February 2025: What to Expect?

Pass rates are higher for February 2025 than historical averages.

Once the Statistics are updated, I’ll be curious to see how the foreign takers did compared to past years and against the other categories of takers. I’ve already noted that.

But in particular, I’ll be curious to see if they can top the recent high water marks of 39.4% and 32.6% overall from October 2020. And I’ll pay particular attention to first time versus repeat pass rates for these two categories.

I feel bad for everyone who went through the stress of the February 2025 California Bar Exam. I spoke with foreign takers who shared their own experiences navigating the high-stakes exam while dealing with issues. But, it may turn out that this was a particularly good time to sit for the bar exam if the ultimate goal is passing.

Will scholars and practitioners, boards and courts, study the October 2020 and February 2025 groups? I think those experts, armed with data, disciplinary procedures, and other information, will be able to see really important insights into the regulation of the legal profession.

If the October 2020 and February 2025 cohorts are similar to past groups in their legal careers, what will that say about all the people who weren’t able to practice law because they did not pass a bar exam? And on the flip side, what happens if their paths and careers diverge substantially from the norm?

But that is outside my bailiwick.